Polysilicon production is expected to increase to a certain extent, with major PV module manufacturers refusing to budge on prices [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the price index for N-type polysilicon was 34 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon priced at 33-36 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline, with mainstream prices for mixed polysilicon dropping to around 33 yuan/kg. Ingot-pulling enterprises still have a mindset of driving down prices due to the polysilicon market situation and their own costs. Meanwhile, polysilicon enterprises still face inventory challenges, and two new production/resumption bases may be added in early July. Currently, the market sees a high probability of increased polysilicon supply in the future. The market will continue to monitor the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia region.

Wafer: This week, the price of N-type 183 wafers was 0.88-0.92 yuan/piece, 210R wafers were priced at 1.03-1.07 yuan/piece, and 210 wafers were priced at 1.23-1.28 yuan/piece. Wafer prices weakened slightly, with some 183 wafer prices falling below the 0.9 yuan/piece threshold early in the week. The low prices were mainly concentrated among small and medium-sized enterprises, and market sentiment remains pessimistic. There have been no significant changes in wafer production schedules for June, with top-tier enterprises potentially considering production cuts, but the extent is currently limited. End-use demand remains weak, and the supply-demand relationship remains the main market challenge in the future.

Cell: For P-type cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells was 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. These are mainly for export orders, with some producers integrating production line resources and starting or stopping production based on order conditions. For N-type cells, firstly, among TOPCon high-efficiency solar cells, the mainstream price for 183N was 0.23-0.24 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price for 210RN was 0.265 yuan/W, and the mainstream price for 210N was 0.255-0.26 yuan/W. Secondly, for HJT cells, the mainstream quotation for HJT30% silver-coated copper (with efficiency of 25% and above) was 0.35-0.36 yuan/W, with prices slightly increasing due to market demand fluctuations and cost control.

Demand for TOPCon solar cells remains generally sluggish. Observing by size: after experiencing price reductions earlier in the week, 183N prices have recently stabilized at 0.23 yuan/W. Multiple enterprises have already taken production cut measures to control inventory or expand overseas export channels to increase shipment space, temporarily halting the previous downward trend. The price trend for 210N is similar to that of 183N, as it also faces challenges of weak demand and oversupply, and currently still has downward pressure. The situation for 210RN is more optimistic, with sufficient demand support. However, as producers accelerate the process of changing or modifying production lines at the beginning of the month, 210RN production is gradually increasing, and the supply-demand balance is about to face a new round of challenges, with transaction prices of 0.26 yuan/W already appearing in the medium- to high-efficiency segment.

Module: This week, the price spread in the PV module market widened, with large enterprises generally refusing to budge on prices, while prices from small and medium-sized enterprises showed a further downward trend. Currently, there are no new module shipments for centralized projects, with deliveries mainly based on previous orders. Shipments of distributed projects have further declined. Currently, the overall inventory of modules is manageable, but there is a structural divergence. Inventories of 72-format modules with around 590W power are relatively high, while inventories of 66-format high-power modules are generally low. The current mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects are 0.653-0.662 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules, they are 0.668-0.677 yuan/W. The prices for TOPCon distributed 182mm modules are 0.679-0.696 yuan/W, and for distributed 210mm modules, they are 0.684-0.701 yuan/W. All the above prices include freight costs.

EVA: This week, the price of PV-grade EVA ranged from 9,500 to 9,750 yuan/mt, with the average price falling by 300 yuan/mt WoW. The price of PV-grade EVA continues to weaken. On the supply side, some petrochemical companies have shifted to maintenance and production conversion, leading to a relatively tight overall supply of PV-grade EVA. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is listless, and film manufacturers are purchasing based on immediate needs. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues. On the demand side, module scheduled production has declined, and demand is weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of PV-grade EVA will fluctuate at lows in the near future.

Film: The mainstream price range for EVA film is 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, and for EPE film, it is 13,900-14,000 yuan/mt. This week, the price of film has been in the doldrums. Module companies are paying close attention to the future price trend of PV-grade EVA. On the cost side, the price of PV-grade EVA is weakening, providing weak support. On the demand side, module scheduled production is declining, and demand is lower than expected. Under the dual pressure of costs and demand, it is expected that the price of film will remain weak in the future.

POE: The domestic delivery-to-factory price of POE ranges from 12,000 to 14,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, module scheduled production is declining, and demand is sluggish. On the supply side, with the release of new capacity in the future, the supply-demand pattern will gradually loosen. Under the dual pressure of weak demand and increased supply, it is expected that the price of PV-grade POE will decline in the future.

PV Glass: This week, quotes from some PV glass companies have continued to decline. As of now, the mainstream quote for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass in China is 11.4 yuan/m², with some companies offering quotes as low as 11.2 yuan/m². The mainstream quote for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 19.0 yuan/m², and for 2.0mm back-coated PV glass, it is 10.8 yuan/m². This week, domestic quotes for PV glass have continued to decline. As of now, the quote for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 11.2-11.6 yuan/m². This week, the inventory levels of domestic glass companies have slightly decreased compared to the previous period. Module companies have entered the market to make purchases, and trading volume has recovered somewhat. Meanwhile, some domestic glass companies have begun to reduce production by blocking their kilns recently. Supply-side expectations have started to decline, and the extent of future supply surplus will weaken. Some downstream module companies have shown increased willingness to buy the dip, and subsequent glass prices are likely to fluctuate at the bottom.

High-purity quartz sand: This week, domestic high-purity quartz sand quotes remained temporarily stable. The current market quotes are as follows: Inner layer sand is priced at 60,000-68,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand at 31,000-42,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand at 17,000-24,000 yuan/mt. The spot order prices of imported sand traders have dropped slightly. Recently, demand from the wafer side has remained sluggish, and crucible prices have also shown signs of decline this week. The demand for quartz sand has been weak. On the supply side, with the influx of some high-purity quartz ore, domestic quartz sand production has slightly increased. Overseas, it is expected that with the capacity expansion of mainstream enterprises in the future, long-term supply will increase. The result of the mismatch between supply and demand is expected to cause a slight drop in quartz sand prices in the future.

Terminal: This week, the PV terminal market showed a situation of increasing volume but decreasing prices. According to SMM statistics, there were a total of 32 projects in China, of which 20 projects disclosed their installed capacity. The main types of PV modules procured and awarded this week were N-type and P-type PV modules. The distribution range of winning bid prices for PV modules was concentrated at 0.67-0.84 yuan/W, with a weekly weighted average price of 0.75 yuan/W. The weekly average winning bid price was 0.74 yuan/W, an increase of 0.06 yuan/W compared to last week. The total procurement capacity of winning bids in a single week was 123.89 MW, a decrease of 388.42 MW compared to last week.

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